December 16, 2004
Injury Possibilities
I asked Sig Mejdal, who wrote the injury prediction section of The Bill James Handbook 2005 to comment on the probabilities of injuries in 2005 for Sexson and Martinez.
Sexson is #231 as far as any injury. that's moderate and is a .149 chance.
He is the 37th highest risk for shoulder injury. Yes, he had one last year, but he didnt have any in the last 2 years and for his career, he has been quite healthy. All those things are looked at. Still, he has a .036 chance of a major shoulder injury next year according to the regression. That is good for #37 on the list.
Pedro is #152 as far as pitchers for Any Injury. He has a .166 chance in 2005. He is #61 for a shoulder injury. He has a few years on him, and although he has not had a shoulder injury in the last 2 years (which the regression really looks at), he has had quite a few cat4&5 seasons in his youth, and that is an indicator of future shoulder injuries (although an interaction analysis between the number of cat4&5 and age, I didnt do, but would be interesting to see). That's why he scores fairly high on a shoulder injury even though he has been relatively free of the major injuries (i.e. those that keep you out for a month or more). He is #126 for an elbow injury (.067), and is #408 (.005) for an arm injury. Remember, those are all injuries that keep you out for 30 consecutive days.
Thanks, Sig.