Baseball Musings
Baseball Musings
October 03, 2004
Twins-Yankees

When the Twins clinched, I suggested that the way to approach the Twins offensively was to swing for the fences against the starters. Let's look a little closer at Johan Santana to see why this is a good strategy. Santana has allowed 70 runs this year, and nearly half, 33 have come as a result of the HR. It's difficult to string together a consecutive on-base PA against him, so the best way to score is to get a good pitch and put it out of the park. Swing for the fences.

The Yankees are a good team to implement this strategy. NY has a diverse offense; they can beat you by loading the bases with runners or powering the ball out of the park. The 2004 team set a team record for HR in a season. They have six starters with over 20 HR and three with over 30. The switch hitters, Williams and Posada, each have more power against lefties. So the trick for the Yankees will be to wait (as usual) for their pitch, but they should make sure they get that uppercut so they drive it out of the park.

These two teams are a lot closer offensively than you think. Their batting averages are almost identical; the Yankees really beat the Twins by walking more. But if Santana and Radke take away the walk as an offensive weapon, then you have two evenly matched offenses. The Yankees will need to use their superior power to win the series.

My feeling is that game 1 will likely decide the series. A Twins win means they can get two wins out of Johan, then find one in the other three games. If the Yankees win game 1, they can beat anyone else the Twins throw at them.


Posted by David Pinto at 07:56 PM | TrackBack (0)
Comments

Of course, If Santana and Radke take away the walk, they are throwing more strikes, and throwing lots of strikes means that if you are making mistakes you are making them in the zone. Mistakes in the zone tend to get hit a long way by the Yankee lineup.

I guess that's why the Yankees won 101 games.

Posted by: steve at October 4, 2004 03:04 PM