Baseball Musings
Baseball Musings
September 20, 2004
Ichiro Odds

Ichiro Suzuki only accumulated 3 hits in the four days I was gone, and his odds of breaking Sisler's record have dropped with his falling batting average. He'll need 22 hits in an estimated 57 AB over the Mariners last 13 games to break the record.

Chance of 258 HitsBased on 2004Based on Career
Probability of Breaking Record.426.258
95% Confidence, Low End1412
95% Confidence, High End2826

The record is still well within the 95% confidence range. So while at this point it's more likely that he won't break the record, he could still do it without his batting average being significantly different that his career average (statistically speaking).


Posted by David Pinto at 09:48 AM | Records | TrackBack (0)
Comments

Amazing. Even with the extra 8 games it doesn't look good for Ichiro. A record like this means having to be consistent for a whole season. If he can't do it this year, it may be a long time before someone does.

Posted by: Robert at September 20, 2004 07:42 PM

i'm still rooting for the singles guy!!!

GO ICHIRO!!!

Posted by: lisa gray at September 20, 2004 10:14 PM

Another game goes by, and he's getting closer to it. Go Ichiro!

Posted by: Frank at September 21, 2004 03:49 AM