Baseball Musings: Remember this name

August 23, 2004

Remember this name

I just read in Baseball America that a Cuban player by the name of Kendry Morales has recently defected. I had the great fortune of having watched Morales play for the Industriales of the Cuban League two years ago. I believe that he was only 19 years old at the time, and believe me, the kid can rake! The local fans were very excited about him, and he did hit a homerun in one of the games I watched with my friend Geoff Emerick at Estadium Latinoamericano in Havana. I'll try to locate my scoresheets from those games to provide more details on Morales's hitting exploits.

I am unfortunately unaware of any reliable statistics for Cuba's modern league, and as a sabermetrician I much prefer to make talent judgments on the basis of statistics and performance rather than on just observation the way some scouts do. (It actually amazes me the way they can genuinely see potential that does not readily manifest itself through statistical performance). So based upon just the few games I saw in Havana, Morales looked like the real deal to me.

I believe that he's already taking part in the standard domiciliary shell game to establish himself as a citizen of another country (perhaps the DR?) so that he can circumvent MLB's amateur draft - as any self-respecting foreign free agent would do. This is the route that agent Joe Cubas has gone with some of his clients so successfully in the past. This would make him a free agent and allow him to negotiate a potentially huge contract, rather than make him the indentured servant of the lucky club that drafts him and having then to endure playing 2-3 years for less than his market value before finally becoming eligible for salary arbitration.

Realistically, I wouldn't be surprised if he made a much bigger splash than any of the other Cuban defectors, from Rolando Arrojo to Rey Ordonez to El Duque. And although he doesn't have the extensive body of work of Ichiro Suzuki or Hideki Matsui from Japan, Kendry Morales could well become the greatest player to come to the U.S. from Cuba since the embargo...or he could just join recent Yankee bust Andy Morales (no idea whether they're related) on the scrap heap. It'll be interesting to see what happens, but if Jose Contreras can get $32 million for 4 years, then Morales should soon become a very wealthy young man.

Posted by Jim Storer at 08:17 PM | Cuba | TrackBack (0)

Comments

I don't get the fascination with Cuban defectors. How many of these guys have actually put together successive years where they were significantly above replacement value?

And yet the hype machine rolls on unimpeded by a track record that would suggest that Cuban baseball is not remotely in the same league with the Dominican Republic or Puerto Rico in terms of producing above-average MLB players.

Maybe I'm suffering from selective recall. I'd love to see a study that shows how defecting Cubans have fared with other ballplayers outside the annual amateur draft firewall over the past 10 years or so.

Posted by: Doug at August 24, 2004 01:06 PM

I think a lot of the fascination is just an interest in the unknown, with a bit of Cold War nostalgia thrown in. We've been hearing for so long about how great the Cubans are, and have been so starved for actual reports of them, that we often mythologize them in the absence of any hard data.

Who's the best Cuban refugee to hit the majors? El Duque? No one has put together a long, successful career, that's for sure.

Posted by: Christian at August 24, 2004 04:40 PM

Christian,

I agree that both the unknown factor and the "Cold War nostalgia" are key factors. I also think that the agents who have specialized in getting these guys signed up have done a masterful job of hyping these guys to competing GMs -- just talk to the Red Sox, talk to the Yankees and then sit back and wait for the pot to boil.

I agree that El Duque is the best of a lackluster recent lot. Going further back, I think that a list of the best Cuban-born players would include Tony Perez, Tony Oliva, Luis Tiant, Rafael Palmeiro and Jose Canseco. But the recent pool of quality Cuban major leaguers is very thin.

Posted by: Doug at August 24, 2004 07:31 PM

Until one Cuban doesn't suck, you can have 'em. I'll put the over/under on his age at 24, by the way.

Posted by: Al at August 25, 2004 02:35 AM

Yes, Jim, it is I, Mr. Marriner. I want to give you one more reason to remember Kendry's name - he is one of a select group of Latin American players, especially beloved by my son Henry, who have Anglo first names and Spanish surnames. His favorites include Edison Reynoso, Anderson Machado, Wilton Guerrero, and of course Bronson Arroyo (I'd guess he is not a full-fledged member; he looks more Santa Monica than Santo Domingo to me).

Perhaps you are familiar with the Reggie Cleveland All-Stars. If you're not, I would be glad to explain some time. I would welcome your suggestions on a name for this group.

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