Baseball Musings
Baseball Musings
July 07, 2004
Time to Retire?

I don't know how many players actually retire. You have to have been pretty good for a while to actually leave the game and have people notice. Mike Schmidt retired. He came back for one more season, but his skills were gone, so he hung up his glove after a month and went home. Most players, however, believe they still can play, and it's not until no one wants them that they realize it's time for a new job.

I think we're witnessing the sudden descent of a player from useful to should retire, and that player is Rafael Palmeiro. Even discounting the slump he's in (anything can happen in 100 AB), he's no longer hitting like a first baseman. Despite a declining batting average since 1999, Palmeiro has kept his value with great OBA's and very good slugging percentages. But not this year. His OBA has dropped to .354 (not bad, not great) and his slugging percentage is .396. He's going to be in the HR Derby at the All-Star game. That might be a good place for him to announce his retirement. He's no longer helping the Orioles, and it's unlikely he'll help other teams in the future.


Posted by David Pinto at 09:38 PM | Players | TrackBack (2)
Comments

Edgar Martinez is another one who needs to retire--now.

Posted by: Rebecca Allen at July 7, 2004 10:20 PM

Heck, Edgar and Raffy probably see Julio Franco and think, "Hey, I've got 7 or 8 more years"!

Posted by: chad at July 8, 2004 08:07 AM

Barry Larkin foolishly has put his retirement on hold. i know he's hitting well and just made the All-Star team, but if the Reds are going to contend (and with their pitching they are not), they need to be able to move on and put the past behind them. Barry - you're likely going to the Hall of Fame. enjoy the rest of the year and then let the Reds move into the 21st century.

Posted by: jamie at July 8, 2004 02:38 PM

Well, we know how good the Orioles are at letting their aging superstars know when it's time to take a break or retire. Am I the only one who didn't see much heroic in Cal Ripken inserting himself into the lineup every day just to keep his streak alive, even when he wasn't helping the team?

Adam

Posted by: Adam Villani at July 8, 2004 04:47 PM

I agree that Palmeiro is on the decline, but virtually all of his struggles this year have come against left-handed pitching, against which he has a .492 OPS (as of the July 10 game). Against right-handers, his OPS is .891, so he still has some value as a hitter, if only in a platoon role. The odd thing is, Palmeiro hit lefties and righties almost equally well prior to this year, so this year's performance may be a temporary aberration. I'm not going to count him out yet.

As for Ripken, yes, his streak could have been construed as selfish at times, but to some extent you just had to accept that as a small negative side effect of the qualities that made him the great player he was. I don't think he extended his career too long because (1) he had one of his best years at the plate in 1999, leading him to think that he still had something left in the tank, and (2) the Orioles didn't have anyone better to play third base in 2000 and the first half of 2001 (they actually picked up Tony Batista a week after Cal announced that he would retire at the end of the season).

Posted by: The Birds Watcher at July 11, 2004 03:22 PM

re: Rafael Palmiero & Schmidt

It's easy to say that a player should retire, but with the salaries they command today, even Schmittie would have hung on another two years past his time. Schmidt made $2 million a year at his peak salary; that's like bupkus pay today once you get to your arb year.

The huge salaries of a player once they're in the league six years are a huge disincentive to retire just because performance has declined.

Homo oeconomicus--the "rational man"-- would not retire under such circumstances until absolutely forced out of the game by management.

--AJK

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