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May 21, 2004
Pujols in the Pantheon
Pujols and Edmonds just went back-to-back with home runs in the Cubs game. The more I see Albert, the more impressed I am with him. Here's a player, 24 years old, that has a career .330 BA, .410 OBA and .608 slugging percentage. I mean, this guy hasn't peaked yet (yes, there's a chance he's older, but I'm willing to give him the benefit of the doubt for now). And on top of that, he's always in the lineup. Albert is laying the foundation to be the greatest hitter of all time. If he improves over the next three years as we might expect, we might very well see:
And with Bonds starting to fade with age, a run of MVP's is certainly on the horizon. Some smart marketing executive has to start promoting this young man. He's going to be baseball over the next decade. Comments
I tend to agree, but he's going to suffer in comparison to A-Rod as long as he's in the comparatively small St. Louis market. Of course, that will change once he (inevitably) becomes a Yankee, which will probably happen with his next contract. Posted by: Rebecca Allen, PhD at May 21, 2004 05:36 PMIsn't it possible he's already peaked, regardless of how old he is? Pujols is obviously a great hitter, but there's nothing that says he HAS to get better as he gets older, just because most people do. I mean, Alex Rodriguez had a 1.045 OPS at age 20. And you can argue that was his best season so far. He's 28 now, and while he's amazing, he didn't get appreciably better offensively. Greatest hitter of all time is nothing to bestow on a 23 year old. I don't think he'll bust, but Griffey was gonna hit 800 home runs, right? Posted by: Alan at May 21, 2004 06:16 PMRight... saying Pujols is on track to be one of the greatest of all time is a different thing from him actually staying on that track. That said, he's been amazing from the moment he entered the majors. Posted by: Adam Villani at May 21, 2004 06:55 PMHow would you say Pujols' career beginning compares to that of Frank Thomas? I remember a time when Frank was putting up all sorts of records for those in their first 5 years in the league. Posted by: Bulls Blogger at May 21, 2004 08:16 PMI think the Thomas comparison is a very good one. Thomas had a great eye and great power. However, Thomas didn't play his first full season until he was 23. So Pujols is way ahead of Thomas at the same age. The other difference is that Thomas was a poor defensive player; while Pujols doesn't seem to have a primary position, he's versatile enough to play all the corner positions. Posted by: David Pinto at May 21, 2004 08:23 PMpujols is aggressive at the plate, but has an excellent batting eye. this is a guy who, until his slump this year, never seemed to have a bad plate appearance - and if he did have one, he'd rap a hard liner to right or smoke a grounded through the hole his next time up. i certainly wouldn't knock his style, but his eye and intelligence mean he's a candidate for severe strikezone shrinkage and the consequent 150 BB type seasons and improvement in the other facets of his hitting to go with it. that's the only reason i think he might not yet've peaked - he doesn't strike out much and his eye is good enough that if he gets an epiphany or the right coach, he could develop a bonds or thomas-like approach at the plate. of course, you don't want to tinker with a guy who puts up the numbers he does. i can say with certainty that he'll never set the RBI record because la russa is an idiot. Posted by: yanquis at May 21, 2004 11:47 PMWoa, slow down David! Actually, it's funny Thomas' name comes up, because when Peter Gammons did his piece about Pujols back in March, his description of Pujols' "throwback" approach reminded me of Big Frank. So I did a quick comparison between the two players through age 23, and I found Thomas was actually slightly ahead of Pujols. (COMN to see what I wrote.) What's most germane to our discussion is that Thomas more or less peaked at age 23, and continued to play at that level until age 30, ultimately falling shy of Bill James' right-handed Ted Williams prediction. (With the exception of strike-shortened 1994, Thomas' OPS+ hovered between between 174-181 every year from his rookie year in '90 to '97.) Vlad Guerrero's another current superstar who peaked at an early age and so far has continued to keep playing at that same level. So whether he's 24 or 34, I'm not necessarily convinced Pujols is going to get much better. But he's already pretty damn good. Posted by: Jurgen at May 22, 2004 12:53 AMEven though Albert Pujols may be hitting 77 points lower than last year he still is having a good power production year and is on pace to hit 40 homers. Not many 4th year players can say their in their worst season they hit 34 homers, drove in 127 runs and hit .314 like Pujols can. One concern is that his OBP. was .411 in May and only .338 in May. He has only had more than 2 hits in a game once this season but I think he is too good of a hitter to be batting under .300 very long. Time will tell whether he can do this year after year but for now he is in the very top echelon of major league hitters. After watching Ken Griffey Jr. being only a shadow of himself and Roberto Alomar becoming a mediocre hitter since leaving the Indians you can never know what the future holds for Pujols but think barring injury he will be one of the best players ever. Posted by: Andrew Godfrey at May 22, 2004 12:04 PM |
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