April 28, 2004
The Pen is Mightier
Nice job by the Philadelphia bullpen tonight. Myers had a rough start giving up eight hits in four innings. But Madson came on for four innings and only allowed 1 hit, while Wagner pitched the 9th for his 6th save. Combined they gave up 1 hit, 0 BB and got four strikeouts. Thome had 3 hits and his OBA is up to .462.
Posted by David Pinto at
11:20 PM
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If Madson pitches like this in relief all season (he's been good pretty much every time out up until now) then the Phils are going to find it very easy to let Millwood and/or Milton go after the season.
If nothing else, it looks like Earl Weaver let Bowa and Wade know how to handle a young pitcher.
With the kids on the farm, namely Floyd and Hamels, the Phils won't have any trouble letting at least one of them walk.
I'm convinced Madson will be the fifth starter in no time. Myers is either hurt or is just in a deep mechanical nightmare. Something's wrong and it's got to be fixed soon. Madson should more than suffice while they figure out what's wrong with Myers.
I think I'd actually prefer they move Telemaco to the #5 starter spot and keep Madson in the pen; as long as they insist on carrying dead weight like Hernandez, Madson is the only thing keeping him from pitching meaningful innings.
i agree with yuda, keep madsen in the pen. the phils starters caved in at the end of last year, presumably from overwork (or over Bowa). i need a strong link between the starters and wagner and it can't be worrell all the time. cormier's not looking like he'll have the year he had last year.
thome=best signing ever.
Re: The Phillies
The Phillies are playing good ball right now, but they are going to experience some problems based on a number of simulations I've run of the team.
(1) David Bell has a poor on-base percentage, and a very bad platoon differential against right hander.
(2) Same problem with Lieberthal.
So you have two right handed hitters who don't walk, and who have about a 50-75 point dropoff against righties in your lineup. Also, slow and prone to hitting into DPs, althought that's sabermetrically unimportant.
(3) Byrd, Polanco and Rollins won't take walks, so they all have bad OBAs. Since OBA is about 75% of offense, this hurts the Phils ability to generate runs. They would have been better off getting a proving OBA machine like Kenny Lofton or some other left-handed OBA walk machine to play the outfield and platoon Byrd against lefties, who he hits far better. Polanco and Rollins, due to their extraordinary defensive abilities, might be tolerable OBAs, but the rest of the lineup has to get on base.
(4) What's good is Abreu, Thome and Burrell. These three guys are Walk and Slugging Percentage Machines. Abreu for seven years has averaged 100 or more walks, 25 or more homers, 35 or more doubles, and has stolen 30 bases. His OBA/OPS and speed-power numbers are fantastic. Thome walks 125 times a year and hits 45 homers. Burrell, even in a bad year last year, walked nearly 100 times and hit 20 homes. This year he's hitting far better and is on pace to hit about .300 BA, walk 80-100 times, and slug .450 or better. These are excellent 3-4-5 hitters.
(5) The bad news is that Abreu and Thome have sharp falloffs v. LH pitching--about 50 points or more both in OBA, Slugging % etc. Burrell by contrast while he hits lefties better does hang in well and has not as much stastistical fall off v RH.
(6) The Philies have guys in their farm system who can take a walk. Chase Utley in his call up last year took a lot of walks, even though he only batted .230. Left handed infielder. Julio Machado was the leading walk getter in AAA baseball with more than 100 walks, even though he only batted .200. If Machado could bring his average up even a bit, he and Utley could be a platoon at 3d or 2d and replace Bell effectively and cut payroll in a sabermetric move.
(7) Bell has been horrible on defense. He made a 4 run error by throwing away a 2-out ball against the Marlins a week or two ago. He threw away a routine grounder against the Cardinals this week after backing up on the ball, and in general, he looks frightened of even routine grounders. Of course, I'm spoiled by watching Mike Schmidt for his whole career and then Scott Rolen for six years, but this kid isn't half the fielder that his dad or granddad (Buddy Bell and Gus Bell) were. For all the money the Phils spent on him, they should have gotten Jeff Kent, a proven offensive commodity. Bell's offense is horrible, low OBA, a slugging average of less than .400, and a terrible platoon differential.
(8) Regarding tyler houston, yeah he looks good on the computer, but you notice no one has picked him up. He's been with a lot of teams, and he does have a big mouth. Nonetheless, he represents a substantial sabermetric bargain, perhaps for Toronto.
--Art Kyriazis
Patent Consultant, biostatistician