March 14, 2004
Who'll Stop Tim Raines?
The Expos announced they will retire Tim Raines number on June 19. Raines was the NL's Rickey Henderson during the 1980's. Tim got on base, and stole with abandon. And he stole successfully, swiping 808 bases while only being caught 146 times, and .847 success rate.
His best year was 1987. He was a victim of collusion; as a free agent, no one appeared to want him, despite the fact that he was one of the best players in baseball. He could not re-sign with the Expos until May 1, so he missed the first month of the season. Despite that, he set a career high in HR and scored over 120 runs. He also put up career highs in OBP and Slugging Pct. In my opinion, he's the greatest player in the history of the fanchise, and it's nice to see him recognized before the team leaves Montreal.
I have long felt that Tim Raines was one of the most under-appreciated great players of his time, suffering from both playing in the shadow of Rickey Henderson and playing his first 12 seasons in out-of-the-spotlight Montreal.
He not only stole 808 bases at a greater than 84% success rate but also had a career .385 OBP (7 times in league top 10, leader in 1986) and .425 SLG, with an OPS+ of 123. He had 170 HR and was a 7 time All Star. He was also an above-average fielder.
Gary Carter is the only former Expo (11 seasons with Expos) in the HOF, and while he played a tougher position, C, than Raines, Carter was not as good a hitter (.335 OBP, .439 SLG, OPS+ 115). Carter deserves to be in the HOF, and so does Raines.
Andre Dawson (.323 OBP, .482 SLG, OPS+ 119), who played 11 seasons with the Expos, was probably not quite as good as Raines. Vlad Guerrero, however, has hit for a .390 OBP, .588 SLG, and 146 OPS+ over 8 season with the Expos. So a case could be made that Raines is the second best Expo of all time behind Vlad.
Raines' stats compare very favorably to Hall-of-Famer Lou Brock (.343 OBP, .410 SLG, 109 OPS+, 149 HR, 938 SB w/75% success) and would-be HOFer Pete Rose (.375 OBP, .409 SLG, 118 OPS+, 160 HR, 118 SB w/ 57% success). While Raines is behind Rickey Henderson (.401 OBP, .419 SLG, 127 OPS+, 297 HR, 1406 SB w/ 80% success), I think it is fair to say that Raines should be included in the HOF, although I expect that Rock will have a difficult time getting voted in.
I used to think Guerrero had a case as the Greatest Expo ever, but looking at the numbers I'm not so sure.
Raines accumulated 1079 EqR (adjusted for all time) in 12 seasons between '79 and '90--remove his first three seasons as a rookie, and starting with his first full season in '82, Raines averaged 112 EqR over nine full seasons with the Expos.
Guerrero, on the other hand, totalled 726 EqR over 8 seasons with the Expos. Like Raines, Guerrero made it to the majors very early and but wasn't a full-time player until his age 22 season. Over his last 6 seasons in Montreal, Guerrero averaged 113 EqR--and remember he missed considerable time last year due to his back injury.
So, it seems close, especially when you remember that Guerrero missed considerable time last year due to his back injury. A full season of Guerrero last year would have bumped his yearly average to nearly 120 EqR. But between Between '83 and '87, Raines never had less than 120 EqR. And from his age 22 to age 27 seasons (Guerrero's peak years with the Expos), Raines averaged 123 EqR. From age 20 to age 27, Raines was worth 62.5 wins over a replacement player according to WARP2. From age 20 to 27, Guerrero was only worth 50.9 wins.
It's not just that Raines played longer. He was also better.
Vlad had a lot of catching up to do.
Raines also rarely hit into DPs, another detail in his resume that looks better on close inspection. I was particularly happy to see Rickey Henderson come back in 2003 because it guarantees that Raines won't come up on the same HOF ballot with Rickey; in fact, Raines' HOF class should be pretty thin. He definitely belongs.
Raines should go, because he is one of the elite players of all time, period. Who ran for a better percentage on the bases than him? No one.
Who else ever played with his son in a same game? Griffey, Sr. Who holds the consecutive AL stolen base streak well past his All-star prime? Who helped his teams to six division winners? ('81, '93-'94, '96-'98)
He is a 1st ballot HOFamer.