Baseball Musings
Baseball Musings
January 11, 2004
Established Win Shares

The Baseball Crank has an interesting post on applying established performance levels to win shares. The established performance level of a player is a weighted average of his last three seasons, with the most weight on the last season. Seasons are weighted 3-2-1. Barry Bonds, not suprisingly, is #1 on his list.

A couple of comments on his comments:


*Most of these guys are in their thirties, which is suggests that at least at the very high end, investing in players in their early 30s may not be a terrible bet.

Actually, it seems to me that they are in their early 30's after having three great years. So you want to get players no later than their late 20's.

*The most glaring absence is Vladimir Guerrero, due to the injuries and weakknesses I noted yesterday (I'd still love to have had him, though): his WS totals are a less than spectacular 23, 29 and most recently 18. Oddly, he's never had a 30-WS season.

Yes, I find that odd, also. His 2000 season sure looks like a 30 win share year to me.


Posted by David Pinto at 02:16 PM | Statistics | TrackBack (1)
Comments

I've done a little analysis of Vlad's Win Shares, at this URL:

http://www.baseballgraphs.com/blog/comments.php?id=53_0_1_0_C

Posted by: studes at January 11, 2004 06:58 PM