Baseball Musings
Baseball Musings
October 25, 2003
Today's Matchup

Here's an interesting fact:


From 1999-03, pitchers working on three or fewer days' rest in the postseason have fared poorly. In 37 such starts, they've gone 6-20 with a 5.93 ERA, according to the Elias Sports Bureau.

As you know by now, Josh Beckett will face Andy Pettitte tonight in game 6 of the World Series. Beckett will be pitching on three days rest, while Pettitte last took the mound five days ago. Beckett has had an interesting post season, in that he's pitched extremely well in three of his four starts, but is only 1-2 in those games. His one bad start resulted in a no-decision.

Like Beckett, Pettite has made four starts in the post season, and pitched well in three of them. Like Beckett, his poor start resulted in a no-decision. But unlike Beckett Pettite won all his good starts. Pettitte is 3-0 with a 2.30 ERA in the post season. Beckett is 1-2 with a 2.67 ERA. Frankly, I don't see the great advantage for the Marlins in this game. Giambi's going to be back at DH. If Torre is smart, he'll move Soriano down to 9th and bat Jeter and Johnson 1-2. And I'm sure Jeter has imparted any knowledge he has on how to hit Josh to his teammates. This is going to be a better Yankee lineup than Beckett saw in game 3.

The other thing working against Beckett is that he's on the road in a ballpark that favors lefties. Beckett's ERA goes up almost a run on the road. His 2-5 record on the road has more to do with his support than his ERA, but it's clear you can get to him on the road. Meanwhile, Pettitte's ERA goes down 1/2 a run at home.

One thing that does favor Beckett is that, like Petttitte, he's more effective against opposite handed batters. Lefties hit for a lower average and less power against Beckett than righties did in 2003. Pettitte did better against righties than lefties.

I'm on record as saying that McKeon is not giving his team the best chance of winning the series by starting Beckett today. The only win Josh has in the playoffs is when he was able to pitch a complete game. Going on three days rest, he's less likely to do that. So if Pettitte can hold the game close for seven innings and the Yankees hitters can get Beckett's pitch count high, it will come down to Urbina-Looper vs. Rivera. That's a matchup the Yankees like.

I can't wait to see how it turns out.


Posted by David Pinto at 02:54 PM | World Series | TrackBack (0)