October 20, 2003
Best of Five
With the split in NY, the World Series has been reduced to a best of five, and the Marlins have the home field advantage, although that may not count for much. The Yankees record on the road was the best in the majors (51-29) and was almost as good as the Marlins record at home (53-28). So if the Marlins are going to triumph in this series, where will the wins come from?
Two good chances for victories are in the games pitched by Josh Beckett. He'll face hard-luck loser Mike Mussina twice if the series goes seven, and Mussina has shown he can be outpitched. The Moose redeemed himself with his performance in game 7 of the ALCS, but Yankees fans will forget that quickly if he gets beat by another great opposition outing.
The other game that looks ripe to take for the Marlins is game 5, Wells vs. Penny. Wells pitched well, but he let too many ball be put in play against him, and a few of those found their way through the defense to set up the Marlins runs. The ballpark configuration greatly favors Penny in that game. At this point, I have a hard time seeing that contest go to the Yankees.
As shown last night, Pettitte matches up well against the Marlins, so I think that one goes into the Yankees column, as well as game four, in which a well rested Clemens will go against either Pavano or Willis, and I think Clemens will outpitch either of them to go out in a blaze of glory.
So the more I think about it, the more it looks like the 1997 World Series, where the Marlins have the edge in the odd games, and the Yankees have the edge in the even games. In my opinion, it will all come down to Beckett vs. Mussina; whoever scores for their ace will win the series.