Baseball Musings
Baseball Musings
April 05, 2003
Career HR Record

Jeffrey Rushing writes:


In regards to your post about Sosa breaking Aaron's record, I have a feeling the Overall HR race could have a situation close to the individual record.

Just as McGwire blew past 62 to 70, followed by Bonds a few years later, I think Bonds will eke past Aaron, but two years later Sosa will pass him. After that, it's doubtful anyone will come close to the record for another thirty years, no matter how good Raul Ibanez should be!


An interesting suggestion. I still think Bonds is at the age where his HR totals could fall off suddenly. A few years ago people were talking about McGwire breaking Aaron's record, and he didn't even reach 600 HR. So I have to agree with Mr. Rushing that if Bonds breaks the record, he's likely to just get past it.

As for Sosa blowing by it, that also seems a reasonable assumption. Sammy, if he plays through age 40 (2009 season) needs to average a little over 36 HR a year during that time frame. If over the next three years he can average 50 HR, he'll have knocked more than a year off that quest. But again, Sammy is in the decline phase of his career, so while he looks really good right now, in two years we might not think so. However, I do agree that the chance of Sammy Sosa leaving 755 in the dust looks better every day.

However, I don't agree that no one will threaten the record for a long time after that. You can't discount THE-Rod. Alex Rodriguez is ahead of Griffey and Sosa at the same seasonal age. He's the youngest player ever to 300 HR, and it wasn't even close. Alex's seasonal age is 27, meaning he's at the peak of his career, so we might expect him to have his best year this year. If he can play through age 40 (2016 season), he'll only have to average 32 HR a year to break Aaron's record. And I expect that average number to go down for A-Rod over the next few seasons. So I believe, even if Sosa reaches 800, A-Rod will come close to that.

Bonds and Sosa have to have monster ends to their careers to break the record. A-Rod just needs a long career.


Posted by David Pinto at 09:10 AM | Sluggers | TrackBack (0)