J.D. Martinez improved his chances of winning a triple crown Thursday night as he went 2 for 4 with a home run. Mookie Betts did not play, so Martinez now trails Betts in the batting race by 10 points, Betts at .340, Martinez at .330. There is about a 0.146 probability that Martinez wins the batting title. The home run ties him with Khris Davis for the AL lead, and there is a 0.484 probability of Martinez at least tying for the home run title based on career home run rates. The RBI simulator gives Martinez a 0.988 probability of winning the RBI title, and the RBI-HR simulator gives him a 0.56 probability of winning both given 2018 data. The more conservative estimate of Martinez’s chances of winning the triple crown now gives him a 0.070 probability of winning the triple crown. The more dependent probability gives him a 0.082 of winning the crown. It’s more likely this morning, but still a long shot. It’s especially difficult for fans, since they would need to root for Betts to have a bit of a slump.
Triple Crown Watch
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