The 2018 series on team offense continues with the Baltimore Orioles. The Orioles finished sixteenth in the major leagues and eighth in the American League in 2017 with 4.59 runs scored per game.
I am using RotoChamp as a source of default lineups. That Buck Showalter order is plugged into the Lineup Analysis Tool (LAT) using Musings Marcels as the batter projections. That information produces the following results (Runs per game):
Best lineup: 4.90
Probable lineup: 4.87
Worst lineup: 4.69
Regressed lineup: 4.52
Before I run the LAT, I like to look at the line and try to predict what the LAT will produce. In looking at the Orioles lineup, I thought that Trey Mancini would be batting first or fourth. The LAT likes him in the lead-off slot, with Jonathan Schoop batting cleanup. The LAT agrees with Caleb Joseph and Colby Rasmus batting eight and nine, and Manny Machado batting second. The default lineup gets 86% of the best lineup, making it one of the top lineups in terms of realizing the potential of the order.
The Orioles appear to have disregarded getting on base in exchange for power. I might bet that the Orioles lead the majors in solo home runs, either in total or as a percentage of all home runs. Three years ago this might have been a good strategy, as home runs came at a lower rate. When so many players are blasting these days, the home run or nothing strategy likely won’t work as well.
The one ray of hope here is that Tim Beckham upped his OBP game when he joined the Orioles last season. If he can replicate or improve his .348 OBP with the Orioles, he’ll belong in the lead-off slot and give the power behind him RBI opportunities. Players do tend to regress to their mean, which is why the Marcels are not impressed with 0.4 of a good season.
You can follow the data for the series in this Google spreadsheet.
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Previous posts in this series: