Josh Donaldson set a record for an arbitration eligible player on Friday:
Third baseman Josh Donaldson and the Toronto Blue Jays have agreed to a $23 million (U.S.), one-year contact, the largest one-year deal for an arbitration-eligible player.
The new deal gives the 2015 AL MVP a $6 million raise.
The 32-year-old three-time all-star, who was eligible for arbitration, becomes the highest paid player on the Jays.
Donaldson rebounded from an injury-slowed 2016 to hit .270 last season with 33 homers and 78 runs batted in over 113 games. The sure-handed infielder missed time from April 14 through May 25 with a calf injury, which also hampered him during spring training.
Donaldson was coming off a $28.65 million, two-year deal. He is eligible for free agency after this season.
Donaldson averaged seven WAR over the last three season. Free agents are getting about $8 million a year per expected WAR, so while this is a big raise, it’s much lower than he likely would receive in a FA deal.
Since he is in a decline phase now, playing 2018 as a 32-year-old, I suspect the long-term deal he signs next season will be in the $30 million a year range, rather than the $40 million to $50 million a year deal he might have received in his prime.
I think he would be smarter to go year to year. Take a 1 yr deal for 40 million. Pay a 1-2 million premium against injury for 100 million coverage. Repeat the same the next year and so on. Basically betting that you are not entering a significant decline period based on nothing but age. Why leave all that money on the table when you may not represent the average on the decline curve
After 2017, I thought the Jays looked like a team on the decline and heading for a rebuild. Instead of going directly into that though, which is kind of what I expected, I think they’ve signed Donaldson with the intention of trading him in July to a contender for some solid minor leaguer talent. If that’s why they did this, then I really like this signing.