November 17, 2017

Scherzer’s Stamina

Max Scherzer credits his ability to pitch deep in games to college baseball:

College teams have the major benefit of using their best starting pitchers once a week. Scherzer was the Tigers’ Friday starter, and as he pressed on in that Nebraska game through a scoreless eighth inning and past 115 pitches. Joba Chamberlain, Nebraska’s starter in that game and a future Yankees reliever, had long departed the game, needing 114 pitches to get through 5 2/3 innings. Both talents did so knowing they wouldn’t throw again for seven days.

“When you’re exposed to those types of pitch counts, and you’re facing a lineup three or four times and pitching deep into a game, I really feel like that’s a benefit to pitchers in general,” Scherzer said. “I’ve always been a big believer that, even if it’s only once a month, you do need to really tap your pitch count to an extreme level, to 120, to really push it.”

The Japanese majors use the once a week model for their starters (they always know which day of the week a pitcher is starting). That hasn’t really translated into those pitchers going deeper in MLB games. Scherzer may just be an extreme outlier in pitching ability.

This article, however, notes that general managers are moving toward a more bullpen centric approach to building a pitching staff:

This year’s market is starting to reflect these in-game trends. Teams are willing to accept (even pursue) a 160-inning, 180-inning pitcher, and not aim for a 200-inning certainty. The spending pie on pitching is starting to change too as relievers get a larger slice of it, and some teams lean heavy on the back end of their bullpen to hold a lead. It’s a trend similar to what Jamieson saw when the Tigers moved to the Southeastern Conference and more teams started to put their best arms in the bullpen — to be certain to secure leads.

Might a team be better off with seven starters going deep in games? Probably not, as pitching ability is going to decline a great deal going down to the seventh starter.

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