October 12, 2017

ALCS Preview, Yankees Versus Astros

The Yankees open the 2017 ALCS in Houston as they take on the Astros. Houston defeated the Red Sox easily in four games, while the Yankees needed to win three elimination games against the Indians to play for the pennant. The following table compares the teams offensively:

Team Offense, (AL Ranks)
Statistic New York Yankees Houston Astros
Runs/Game 5.30 (2nd) 5.53 (1st)
Batting Avg. .262 (3rd) .282 (1st)
OBP .339 (2nd-T) .346 (1st)
Slugging Pct. .447 (3rd) .478 (1st)
Home Runs 241 (1st) 238 (2nd)
Stolen Base % 80% (1st) 70% (12th-T)

 

These are the top two offensive teams in the AL. Both teams finished well ahead of the rest of the league in scoring, as the Yankees were 0.25 runs per game better than the third place team, and the Astros were 0.23 runs per game better than the Yankees. Houston dominated the three average categories. They hit for average, drew plenty of walks, and smashed the ball for extra bases. The Yankees draw more walks, over 100 more than Houston, so they put about the same number of men on base. Houston’s greater number of hits, and power with those hits, drives more of those runners home.

The main Yankees advantage is that they don’t give outs away on the bases. They were much better at stealing than Houston, the Astros getting caught 20 more times than the Yankees. New York was also better at avoiding GDPs, as the Astros hit into 20 more ground double plays than the Yankees. That’s 40 more men taken off the bases, which might very well give New York a higher effective OBP.

Team Pitching, (AL Ranks)
Statistic New York Yankees Houston Astros
Earned Run Avg. 3.72 (3rd) 4.12 (5th)
Runs Allowed/Game 4.07 (2nd) 4.32 (4th)
Strikeouts per 9 IP 9.7 (3rd) 9.9 (2nd)
Walks per 9 IP 3.1 (5th-T) 3.2 (8th-T)
Home Runs per 200 IP 26.5 (3rd) 26.6 (4th)
BABIP .282 (1st) .302 (9th)

 

Both teams boast better offenses than pitching staffs, but the pitching and defense is still good. In terms of runs allowed per game, the Yankees came in second lowest, the Astros fourth lowest. That Astros ranking might have been much better if Justin Verlander had pitched for them all year.

Their three-true outcome stats could not be much closer. Houston holds a slight advantage in strikeouts, the Yankees a slight advantage in walks allowed and home runs. The Astros hitters are not about walking, they are about hitting the ball, so that won’t hurt them. The Yankees hitters are about walking, so we’ll see if the Astros pitchers in the strike zone helps or hurts in that regard. Both teams are good at stopping home runs, and both teams are good at hitting them, so that will be strength against strength.

The one place here where the Yankees have an advantage is BABIP allowed. The Astros batters put the ball in play. They don’t strike out much and they don’t walk much. A good defense can hurt that kind of offense, and it appears the Yankees are very good at limiting hits on non-home run balls in play. A low defensive BABIP means that it’s tougher to keep a rally going.

With Verlander, the Astros pitching is probably better than these numbers indicate. If the Houston pitchers can limit Yankees walks, and the New York pitchers can limit Astros hits, it will come down to which team sends the ball out of the park more. I like the Yankees chances in that type of game. Still, the Astros superior offense and home field give them a very slight edge, as I see a 51% chance of the Astros winning the series. This could be a great one.

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