October 25, 2016

Playoffs Today

The 2016 World Series gets underway at 8 PM EDT with Jon Lester of the Cubs facing Corey Kluber of the Indians. Lester pitched great in the 2016 post season so far, allowing just two runs in 21 innings. He allowed just 14 hits, despite allowing the ball to be put in play. Of the 76 batters he faced, only 17 failed to hit a ball in the playing area as Lester struck out 14, walked two, and allowed a home run. The 13 hits in 59 AB give him an opposition BABIP of .220. The Cubs defense is coming through for Lester.

Since the Indians are a good base running team, I suspect they will actually run on Lester. It is worth noting that opponents went 28 for 41 stealing against Lester, 68.3%. That’s just a bit better than break even in terms of run potential. So for all the trouble Lester has throwing to first, opponents did not increase their scoring by stealing against him.

Kluber saw his strikeout rate decline and his walk rate increase compared to 2015, but his ERA dropped 0.35 runs. The Indians defense improved, however, helping Kluber allow fewer hits. Like Lester, he pitched well in the post-season so far. He allowed two runs in 18 1/3 innings. He allowed 13 hits, thanks in part to 20 K. His BABIP allowed stands at .267, as the Indians played well behind him, too.

Enjoy!

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