The Nationals and Dodgers made their choices, and Joe Ross takes the ball for Washington against Clayton Kershaw. In terms of three-true outcomes, Ross did everything well in 2016. He struck out 93 in 105 innings with 29 walks and nine home runs. All those numbers are good, none of them are outstanding. He only pitched 9 2/3 innings after coming back from an injury, but struck out 14.
The Kershaw gambit is the interesting one. The other choice, Julio Urias, is quite a bit like Joe Ross. So if it is Urias and Ross, the Dodgers probably have a 50/50 chance of winning game four. Then Kershaw and Max Scherzer face off Thursday. Those two pitchers are also comparable, so there is a 50/50 chance of the Dodgers winning game five, or a 25% chance of the Dodgers winning the series. Normally, I’d say there is an 80% chance of Kershaw beating Ross, and assuming Rich Hill pitches Thursday, a 60% chance of Scherzer winning that game. So that gives the Dodgers a 32% chance of winning the series. I don’t think Kershaw has an 80% chance of beating Ross today. If that probability is 60% in Kershaw’s favor, then the Dodgers would be better off waiting the extra two days. Kershaw started game one strong, striking out the first three batters he faced. After that, the Nationals started putting men on base, collecting eight hits in five innings. The Dodgers bullpen is stretched thin after yesterday, and they can’t expect Kershaw to go deep in the game.
I suspect the Dodgers have a much better grasp of the probabilities than I do, but I’d rather have two 50/50 chances to win, than a 60% of losing game five.
The Cubs try to stop the Giants streak of winning elimination games as John Lackey faces Matt Moore. Lackey pitched well down the stretch, with a 2.34 ERA in his last nine starts. He did show some control issues toward the end of the season, with nine walks in his last four starts. Moore had a rough time overall with the Giants, but seemed to put things together in his last two starts, striking out 17 in 15 2/3 innings and walking just two.
Enjoy!