October 1, 2015

Massive Tie Scenario

The Rangers won and the Angels lost on Wednesday, so the possibility of a three-way tie for the AL West lead is dead, and by extension, the possibility of a four-way tie for the West and the second AL Wild Card slot. Houston came back twice against the Mariners to win 7-6. Even Gattis hit his 11th triple of the season in the top of the seventh, and pinch-runner Jonathan Villar came around to score the winning. I suspect it is very rare to pinch-run for someone with double digit triples in a season. One of these things is not like the others.

The win puts the Astros 1/2 game up on the Angels for the second wild card slot, the Twins 1 1/2 games back. The probability of a three-way tie now stands at 0.054, with the most likely number of wins for the tie at 85:

  • Astros 1-2
  • Angels 2-2
  • Twins 3-1

Since the Angels are playing the Rangers, this scenario would give the division to Texas. The Angels need to sweep the Rangers to have a shot at the division lead. If the Angels and Astros both win the rest of their games, they tie for the AL West title. Note, too, that if the Angels sweep the Rangers, the Astros win two of three games, and the Twins win their four remaining games, there would be a three-way tie for the second wild card as well at 86 wins. That raises the probability of any three-way tie to 0.060.

Thursday sees the 1/2 game differences eliminated, and the best outcomes would be:

  • The Twins defeat the Indians (Indians are now eliminated with the Astros win).
  • The Angels beat the Rangers.

The Twins finish the season against the Royals, who are fighting the Blue Jays for best record in the American League and home field throughout the playoffs. Those should be good games. The Astros end the season in Arizona, where they will not be able to use a designated hitter.

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