September 30, 2015

Massive Tie Scenario

It was a good night for the three-way tie for the second wild card in the American League as the Astros fell to the Mariners 6-4, the Angels beat the Athletics 8-1, and the Twins did not play. Robinson Cano continued his post-parasite surge with a home run and three RBI, while Nick Tropeano pitched 6 2/3 strong innings for the Angels. The Angels move 1/2 game ahead of the Astros into the second wild card position. The probability of the three-way tie stands at 0.048, about where it was yesterday. The most likely number of wins for that tie remains at 85 wins:

  • Angels 2-3
  • Astros 2-2
  • Twins 4-2

A four-way tie that includes the Rangers still exists, with a probability of about 0.0021. With the Rangers winning Tuesday night 7-6 over the Tigers in an early inning slugfest, the most likely win total for the four-way tie moves to 86 wins:

  • Rangers 1-4
  • Angels 3-2
  • Astros 3-1
  • Twins 5-1

The Angels and Rangers play four games to end the season starting tomorrow. For this to work, the Angels and Rangers need to lose on Wednesday, then LAnaheim takes three of four from Texas. If both win today, the tie is still possible but then the Astros and Twins would need to run the table.

For Wednesday, the best results would be:

  • The Twins take two from the Indians.
  • The Angels fall to the Athletics.
  • The Rangers lose to the Tigers.
  • The Astros defeat the Mariners.

The four-way tie lives or dies today. The above results would put the Twins and Angels in a tie, 1/2 game behind the Astros. That would set the stage for a very interesting weekend.

2 thoughts on “Massive Tie Scenario

  1. pft

    I’d like to see Rangers, Angels, Astros all finish with 86 W, maybe the Yankees too if they can lose all 5 games remaining which is doubtful. I think the 3 way in the AL West is possible

    ReplyReply

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