July 15, 2015

AL East Review

The AL East went into the break as the closest division in the major leagues. While the Yankees 3 1/2 game lead over Tampa Bay is not the smallest division lead, only 6 1/2 games separate top to bottom in the division. Right now, four of the five teams are likely capable of winning the division, while with some retooling, all five may make a run at the playoffs.

Yankees

The AL East boasts good offense, and the Yankees rank second in the AL and in the division in runs scored per game at 4.65. They are basically an Earl Weaver offense; they walk a lot and hit home runs. Twenty three of the Yankees 116 home runs came with at least two runners on base, the second highest three plus home run percentage in the majors, and the most of that type of homer run in the majors. The team can turn a game around quickly.

On the pitching and defense side, the team is weak. The starters don’t walk batters, while the relievers strike out a ton. Overall that gives them good three-true outcome numbers, and an FIP well below their ERA. The defense is very weak, however, second to last in the AL in UZR per 150. This is where the Yankees need to improve to continue on top of the division. Getting Jacoby Ellsbury back should help a bit.

Rays

Tampa Bay strength lies in their starting pitching. The Game Score comparison shows that this is a high strikeout, low hits allowed team. Some of that, however, comes from the pitchers not being allowed to go deep in games. The Rays seem to take to heart the idea that pitchers lose effectiveness the third time through the lineup, so the Rays starters tend to get out of the game early, with the exception of Chris Archer. Getting Jake Odorizzi and Matt Moore back from injury could make the rotation even better in the second half.

The Rays are getting outscored by 1/10 of a run per game however, which makes one wonder how long they can stay above .500. The team needs to find a bat or two. Their first basemen have been terrible, and in general that’s an easy place to find offense. We’ll see if they can actually find it this season. For some reason, over the years, the Rays seem to want a good defender at the position.

Orioles

The Orioles, like the Yankees, are a high scoring, high home run, and high walk team. Unlike the Yankees, they hit few home runs with at least three men on base, only 10. The Orioles like the Yankees, get more out of their relievers than their starters. While the Yankees won two more games than expected based on their runs scored and allowed, the Orioles lost four more games than expected. I think the reason for that has to do with the spread between the ERA for the starters and relievers. For the Orioles, it’s much wider than for the Yankees. So the Orioles starters tend to put the team in a hole. The bullpen holds the opposition in check, but the offense is terrible late in the game, with a .236/.286/.380 slash line from the seventh inning on. They don’t hit high scoring home runs, so it’s more difficult for the team to dig out of a hole than it is for the Yankees.

I suspect all of these things might adjust in the second half. The Orioles failing strike me more as bad luck and timing than ability.

Blue Jays

Toronto is eight games under their Pythagorean won-lost projection going 10-18 in one-run games. They own the best offense in the American League by 0.7 runs. That’s huge. Their pitching and defense combined is near the bottom of the league, but they score so many runs they still have a positive run differential. The team could really use more strikeouts from their pitchers, which would cut down on hits allowed. The defense is middle of the road, so more Ks will take pressure off them.

The team may be built for their home park too well. They score 5.7 runs per game at home, 5.0 on the road. They allow 3.9 runs per game at home, 4.9 on the road. While they should be .500 on the road, they are actually 19-28, the source of their under performance. They are 3-10 in one-run games on the away from Toronto.

If any team is set for a wicked good regression to the mean, it’s Toronto.

Red Sox

It turns out the off-season hype about this team was undeserved. There may have been a reason the Giants continually complained about Pablo Sandoval‘s weight. Mike Napoli and David Ortiz got old together, at positions that are supposed to generate offense. Hanely Ramirez hit for power, but his OBP is league average at best. A rotation made up of five #3 starters just doesn’t cut it.

The good news is the Red Sox do have a nice little core developing up the middle with Blake Swihart, Xander Bogaerts, and Mookie Betts. They are not Posada, Jeter, and Williams yet, but they could be the start of the renascence. One difference between these Red Sox and the 1995 Yankees is that New York was not burdened with big contracts at the time, so they were able to fill in around their good young players with proven veterans. The Red Sox are stuck with Ramirez and Sandoval for a while.

Outlook

The division is a toss up among the top four teams. Toronto is intrinsically the best team in the division, but sometimes the best team gets the bad luck and doesn’t make the cut. I’m very interested to see if Alex Rodriguez and Mark Teixeira hold for the full season. There are plenty of holes in the Yankees lineup, and if those two get injured or run out of steam, there isn’t enough depth to carry the squad. The Orioles could start hitting more big home runs. Tampa Bay, once again, finds ways to win by maximizing their sparse talent. I guess Joe Maddon isn’t the only manager good at that.

For the final standings, my best guess would be Toronto by a hair, maybe even a three-way tie with he Yankees and the Orioles. The Rays fade a bit but stay in contention, while the Red Sox throw in the towel and build for 2017.

2 thoughts on “AL East Review

  1. pft

    Yankees offense is Jekyll and Hyde. Extreme splits home and away. A below average team on the road offensively, but well constructed at home . HR’s account for almost 50% of their runs

    Yes, the key will certainly be how Arod and Tex hold up, and if the SPing can stay healthy. Like the Royals, their bullpen is masking issues in the rotation, although the Yankees rotation has more upside.

    I don’t think their defense is as bad as UZR says it is. I suspect some of that is poor positioning which comes from the scouting and coaching staffs.

    Blue Jays would be great if they had the pitching, even with Bautista and Encarnacion not having monster years.

    I do think the Red Sox could make a run if Buchholz comes back in August and they gets some BP help, another SP’er and a platoon option at 1B. I keep thinking a Howard, Papelbon and Hamels acquisition makes so much sense for them. 3 last place finishes in 4 years is a bit much for Red Sox fans to tolerate

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  2. Eric

    I think the Yanks improve on defense. Didi will get better and Headley will revert to the mean. Right field is a disaster. Beltran and Young aren’t great fielders. Frankly, if Beltran isn’t going to hit, the Yankees should try to trade him for a 4 or 5 starter for depth, eat some of the salary, and start a defense first outfielder (or bring up Judge).

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