July 6, 2015

The Reserves and the Voting

The All-Star reserves are almost set, and you can find the list here updated as it happens. Kris Bryant replace Giancarlo Stanton on the NL roster, but Andrew McCutchen will get the start. Mark Teixeira replaces Miguel Cabrera, with Albert Pujols getting the start. Alex Rodriguez did not make the team, nor will fans get a chance to vote for among the final five candidates.

The ballot stuffing Royals fans performed a service. By stuffing the ballot box, fans of other players were forced to come out to vote and make a correction. The Royals fans may have been better off saving their votes for the last week, when the rest of the fans would not have had time to react. The worry for the future is that someone truly undeserving is voted on as a starter. With the game “counting”, that is a problem. Most of the discussions about the problems with the vote are at odds with the popularity contest versus on-field accomplishments. There should be a way to balance the two.

The simplest way I could think of is to weight the vote against with a number that represents the player’s accomplishment, WAR. Since FanGraphs and Baseball Reference use the framework differently, combining the two into an average likely gives a better view of the player. This spreadsheet shows how this would have changed the voting at shortstop in the American League among five highest vote totals at the position. In this case, the adjustment causes Jose Iglesias to finish ahead of Alcides Escobar. So a popular player starts, but the team winds up with someone having a better year.

Just a thought.

2 thoughts on “The Reserves and the Voting

  1. Theron

    This doesn’t really fit with this post, but since you brought up the game “counting,” I’ll bring it up here. All the advertising makes a big deal of the game deciding where Game 7 of the World Series is held, but doesn’t it determine where the 2-3-2 format of the World Series starts? Since you always have to play Games 1-4, shouldn’t they be saying the All Star Game decides who gets to open the World Series at home? Maybe that’s not dramatic enough though.

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  2. David Pinto Post author

    Theron » They should say home field advantage. There’s no reason a series can’t be 4-3. When the LCS was five games, it was 2-3.

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