June 21, 2015

Cy Scherzer

Max Scherzer takes over the lead in Tom Tango Cy Young Tracker points after his 10-K no-hitter on Saturday. He earned 6 1/2 points yesterday to take a 3.3 point lead on the Pirates Gerrit Cole. Cole still leads in Bill James Cy Young tracker points due to his better record. It’s a nice, close race.

Devon Young pointed out to me that Scherzer is the leader in strikeouts per nine innings pitched (K/9) since the start of 2012 for pitchers with 600 IP. I think that level is a bit high, so if you put the cutoff at 500 innings, he’s second to Yu Darvish. That level also brings Francisco Liriano and Corey Kluber into the mix. Scherzer is in his fourth season in a row of striking out better than ten batters per nine IP. During that time he kept his walks low, and improved his home run rate every year. Clayton Kershaw was a more dominant pitcher due to lower walk and home run rates during the time period, but Scherzer is a close second.

FanGraphs puts the value of one WAR at $8 million this year, making Scherzer’s four WAR season so far worth $32 million. Let’s be conservative and say he winds up with a seven WAR season. That would be worth $56 million, a quarter of the value of his seven year contract. With that kind of start and typical WAR inflation, it’s tough to imagine the contract turning out to be a poor one.

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