May 23, 2015

Beckham Bombs

Rays Index wonders if Tim Beckham hitting a 464 foot home run indicates that he developed new power:

Beckham now has 5 home runs in just 85 at bats. Over the course of a full season, that would translate to 30-35 home runs. And keep in mind that Beckham also had a home run robbed by the Blue Jays and had another fly ball hit the top of the wall and bounce back.

But is it a fluke? Beckham has never shown this kind of power before. Only once in seven minor league seasons did he hit more than six home runs in a year and that was 12 back in 2011. On top of that, we’ve seen tons of hitters get hot and hit five home runs in fewer than 90 at bats. It doesn’t mean they are a power hitter.

But this home run is different. Sure, a lot of hitters can hit five home runs. But it takes a special hitter to hit a ball 464 feet.

At AAA, Beckham collected 243 hits, 65 for extra bases, 27%. This year, eight of his 19 hits went for extra bases, 42%. His seasonal age is 25, so he’s just entering his prime. Home runs, unlike other hits, have an experience as well as an age factor. In other words, players as they age learn to hit home runs, and that can keep their home run rates from declining as fast when they hit 30 years old. So it’s possible that Beckham learned something about home run hitting.

Unfortunately, we don’t minor league ball in play data for Beckham. He may have learned to loft the ball. We saw something like this happen to Jose Bautista in 2010. If Beckham learned this earlier, he could have a very good peak.

I tend to think this is a fluke. He’s still not a very good hitter, and some of this comes from platooning. I’ll be surprised if it lasts.

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