May 23, 2015

Dee Gordon Watch

Dee Gordon went 2 for 5 Friday night as the Marlins fell to the Orioles 8-5. Gordon broke a 3 for 25 slump that pulled his batting average down to .386. The 2 for 5 left his BA at that level.

This spreadsheet and graph trace his probability of hitting .400 for the season. The static model saw a huge drop in his probability, while the dynamic model is staying steadier. The dynamic model is still increasing his intrinsic batting average, which is making up for the drop in BA. My estimate, however, is that he hits about .320 for the season. Gordon has been able to string a number of multi-hit games together this year, so we’ll see if this is the start of another surge.

Miami remains without a win under new manager Dan Jennings. The offense posted a .233/.276/.311 slash line, while the opposition came in at .273/.325/.348. The relievers have been awful, however, allowing a .319/.354/.403 slash line, which is why the team can’t hold a lead. So far, this particular managerial change looks like the wrong move.

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