The division previews conclude with the AL West. I try to get a handle on the wins for the core of the team. That includes the starting position players, the starting rotation, and the closer. I use a combination of the STATS, Inc. depth charts and the CBSSports depth charts, along with news stories to determine those groups. For wins, I use FanGraphs WAR from 2014, making conservative guesses for players not in the majors in 2014. As a rule of thumb, add 50 to the core WAR to get to a season win level. You can see the spreadsheet with the data here.

Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

• Position Player WAR: 25.7
• Pitcher Total: 6.2
• Core Total: 31.9

The Angels core does not include Garrett Richards who is still working back from his serious injury in 2014. His debut regular season debut has already been pushed back once, so there’s enough uncertainty that I won’t include him right now. With Richards, the core would be over 35 WAR. Without Richards, they still rank second in the AL West.

The main upside for the core sits in Johnny Giavotella. He posted high averages at AAA, but never was able to break into the major league lineup for the Royals. His average at the big league level are not good, but no one gave him the chance to play everyday. At age 27, this is a make or break year, and I suspect he’ll post a 2 WAR, which will help the cause.

Jered Weaver should bounce back a bit as he goes into his veteran transition period. Mike Trout is still so young that he can get a bit better, especially if he can cut down on his strikeouts.

I like this team, but they are not a slam dunk to win the division.

Oakland Athletics

• Position Player WAR: 16.0
• Pitcher Total: 9.7
• Core Total: 25.7

Oakland’s climb back into the playoffs will require more than just Ben Zobrist. They’ll need Marcus Semien to post number more like he did in the minors, Brett Lawrie to live up to his early hype, Billy Butler‘s bat to bounce back and Ike Davis to show he can play everyday. It will also help if catcher Stephen Vogt can sustain his WAR rate over a full season.

The are also dependent on two young pitchers showing they can perform at the major league level. Jesse Hahn strikeouts batters, but may walk a few too many. Kendall Graveman keeps his walks low, but doesn’t strike out many. We’ll see how they accentuate their strengths and hide their weaknesses.

A little too much has to go right for Oakland to stay in contention. Billy Beane will adjust the team mid-season, and my guess is he’ll need to again.

Seattle Mariners

• Position Player WAR: 24.0
• Pitcher Total: 12.8
• Core Total: 36.8

Seattle took a very good team from 2014 and plugged holes to make the better. They already have three stars in Robinson Cano, Felix Hernandez, and Kyle Seager. The Mariners solid veterans Seth Smith, Nelson Cruz, and J.A. Happ to make the core much more solid. Austin Jackson and James Paxton offer plenty of upside, and this looks like the year for the Mariners. The easily have the best pitching core in the division, even if Garrett Richards returns to the Angels, and they are just behind the Angels in position player WAR. It’s a nice mix of youngsters, veterans, and young veterans. This should be a very tight race.

Houston Astros

• Position Player WAR: 18.6
• Pitcher Total: 9.3
• Core Total: 27.9

The Astros increased their win total by 19 games in 2014 compared to 2013. That’s quite an accomplishment. It looks like they are trying to do it again.

The 27.9 WAR is close to the point where start to believe a team can compete. At 30 core WAR, a team should be good for at least 80 wins. Relief pitchers, a hot prospect call up, or a couple of career years can push the WAR up 10 wins, at which point the team is in true contention.

The top three starters in the Astros rotation are good. Roberto Hernandez (aka, Fausto Carmona) didn’t do much in 2014 and I don’t expect much from him this year. He may just be a place holder for Mark Appel.

On the position player side, two veterans, Jed Lowrie and Evan Gattis were brought in to solidify the offense. It’s a good idea, as it will help the developing players get a taste of winning more often than they lose.

In fact, don’t be surprised to see prospects coming up to help the team throughout the year. I suspect they’ll be better by 10 wins, reaching the .500 mark. This is a team on it’s way up, and it looks like the front office wants them to reach contention as soon as possible.

Texas Rangers

• Position Player WAR: 13
• Pitcher Total: 3.8
• Core Total: 16.8/li>

The core score for the Rangers is low due to the number of injuries they suffered in 2014, and the injury to Yu Darvish this season. That means, however, there is plenty of upside. Prince Fielder and Shin-Soo Choo are much better players that zero WAR. Those two could bounce back to combine for eight WAR. Derek Holland only pitched five games in 2014. He could post a three or a four. Ross Detwiler spent the year in the minors because the Washington rotation was so strong. Ryan Rua hit well in the minors, so a one or two WAR from him is certainly possible. If that group can add 15 WAR to the core total, the Rangers are a team in contention.

Probability of winning the division

I see it as mostly a two-way race between Seattle and LAnaheim, but the other three teams could easily surprise if things go right.

• Seattle Mariners: 35%
• Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim: 34%
• Houston Astros: 12%
• Oakland Athletics:11%
• Texas Rangers: 8%

It may turn out to be the most hotly contested division in baseball.