The 2015 series on team offense continues with the Chicago Cubs. The Cubs finished twenty sixth in the majors and twelfth in the the National League in 2014 with 3.79 runs scored per game.

It was difficult to figure out the default lineup for the Cubs. RotoChamp and USA Today posted very different batting orders, with some differences in personnel. It’s clear the Kris Bryant is not going to start the season in the majors. Mike Olt appears to be getting a chance at third base. Also, Joe Maddon is serioulsy thinking of batting Arismendy Alcantara ninth. So I took the RotoChamp lineup and moved Alcantara to the ninth slot. That lineup is plugged into the Lineup Analysis Tool (LAT) using Musings Marcels as the batter projections. For pitchers, I used the Cubs actual averages from 2014. That information produces the following results:

Best lineup: 4.39 runs per game
Probable lineup: 4.32
Worst lineup: 3.87
Regressed lineup: 4.04

With the pitcher batting eighth, this lineup comes very close to the optimum for the Cubs. The LAT would actually prefer a player with a better OBP batting ninth, and a good case could be made for Miguel Montero. As a catcher, a few less plate appearances a season might keep him in better shape. It could be that while Maddon can sell that to a position player who is a poor hitter, he might not be able to sell it to Montero, who is a good offensive catcher.

The LAT also likes Anthony Rizzo batting second. That’s interesting, because in the same Alcantara article, it mentions Maddon putting Rizzo in the lead-off slot:

With 5 1/2 weeks of spring training completed, Chicago Cubs manager Joe Maddon thought Saturday was a good time to move slugger Anthony Rizzo to the leadoff spot.

“It freshes them up a bit,” Maddon said of the change. “It’s always exciting to see it happen. The fans dig it. so let’s give it a roll.”

Maddon didn’t think that anyone should feel slighted by the move.

“That’s the kind of gimmick I do like to use,” Maddon said. “Anything that alters anyone’s mindset. Which is needed in a moment, is good.”

It seems Maddon is willing to experiment, so don’t expect too set of a lineup. Assuming Bryant comes up eventually, and lives up to these projections, the already improved Cubs offense will get an even bigger boost.

You can follow the data for the series in this Google spreadsheet.

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Previous posts in this series:

• Introduction
• Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
• Detroit Tigers
• Colorado Rockies
• Oakland Athletics
• Toronto Blue Jays
• Los Angeles Dodgers
• Minnesota Twins
• Baltimore Orioles
• Washington Nationals
• Pittsburgh Pirates
• Cleveland Indians
• San Francisco Giants
• Chicago White Sox
• Kansas City Royals
• Milwaukee Brewers
• Miami Marlins
• Texas Rangers
• Boston Red Sox
• New York Yankees
• Seattle Mariners
• Houston Astros
• New York Mets
• Philadelphia Phillies
• St. Louis Cardinals
• Arizona Diamondbacks