March 28, 2015

Team Offense, Philadelphia Phillies

The 2015 series on team offense continues with the Philadelphia Phillies. The Phillies finished tied for twenty third in the majors and tied for ninth in the the National League in 2014 with 3.82 runs scored per game. They scored the same number of runs as the St. Louis Cardinals.

I could not find updated lineups at CBSSports.com, so I am going to use a combination of RotoChamp and USA Today. The RotoChamp lineup seems to be more in line with recent spring training games, so I’m using that one, although I think the USA Today order will produce more runs. The Ryne Sandberg lineup is plugged into the Lineup Analysis Tool (LAT) using Musings Marcels as the batter projections. For pitchers, I used the Phillies actual averages from 2014. That information produces the following results:

Best lineup: 4.06 runs per game
Probable lineup: 3.81
Worst lineup: 3.57
Regressed lineup: 3.66

The Phillies have done little to improve their offense heading into 2015. The could gain some by making the order a bit more unconventional. The LAT likes Carlos Ruiz leading off, but catchers, due to the stress of the position, probably should not be in the top spot. The seventh lineup makes a lot of sense, however. Chase Utley was once a power hitter, but he’s probably the best batter for the lead-off spot at this point in his career. Ben Revere, also a good lead-off hitter, moves into the ninth slot to give Darin Ruf someone else to drive in from the second slot. Ruiz is dropped to fifth, and out-machine Ryan Howard bats seventh. Once thing that might be a a side effect of that batting order is that Howard might make himself more open to a trade and lessen his objections to certain teams.

With Jimmy Rollins and Marlon Byrd gone, the Phillies should be younger per PA this season. That, at least, is a step in the right directions.

You can follow the data for the series in this Google spreadsheet.

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