The 2015 series on team offense continues with the Miami Marlins. The Marlins finished sixteenth in the majors and seventh in the the National League in 2014 with 3.98 runs scored per game.
I could not find updated lineups at CBSSports.com, so I am going to use a combination of RotoChamp and USA Today. In this case, I’m going with the USA Today lineup, as it seems to match more of what the Marlins are using in spring training. That Mike Redmond lineup is plugged into the Lineup Analysis Tool (LAT) using Musings Marcels as the batter projections. For the pitchers, I used their actual averages from 2014. That information produces the following results:
Best lineup: 4.38 runs per game
Probable lineup: 4.13
Worst lineup: 3.70
Regressed lineup: 3.90
I don’t like the projected batting order very much. It puts two players with low OBPs, Dee Gordon and Michael Morse in the one and four slots, and those are two slots where OBP is important. The LAT does like the Gordon, Christian Yelich, Giancarlo Stanton sequence, but 9-1-2, not 1-2-3. Stanton and Yelich are going to have to carry the offense. Only Adeiny Hechavarria projects to be really poor at the plate, but the rest of the order while not terrible, isn’t terribly good. I’m not sure the moves they made this winter actually improved the offense.
You can follow the data for the series in this Google spreadsheet.
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