March 24, 2015

Rollins and the Peak

Hardball Talk links to this Ken Rosenthal interview with Jimmy Rollins. It’s a good interview, in which Rollins talks about how he enjoyed playing in Philadelphia, but also how he felt constrained there.

The general area, the city [of Philadelphia] being blue-collar, it’s not conducive for a superstar. You can be good, but you’ve got to be blue-collar along the way, keep your mouth shut, just go and work. Where obviously, this is LA. It’s almost like it’s OK to be more flamboyant. You kind of appreciate that the more you’re out there. Because LA loves a star.

I thought it was interesting that Rollins sees himself as a superstar. I never thought of him as such, but my perceptions can be wrong, so I revisited his career. What stands out to me is that Rollins is a perfect example of when a player peaks and declines. According to Baseball Reference, in his first three full seasons, age 22-24, Rollins posted 7.6 WAR, or about 2.5 per season. From age 25-29, the peak years for player, he posted 25.6 WAR, or about 5.1 per season. That’s certainly a great run, not quite superstar, but someone you want playing shortstop. Since then, he’s posted 12.6 WAR, or 2.1 per season. In fact, 2014 was the only non-peak year in which his WAR was over three. (As a comparison, Derek Jeter averaged 4.9 WAR from 1997 through 2009, never, posting a season under 3.0.)

Rollins had a great peak, including an MVP, but he probably wasn’t the best player on his team, let alone a superstar. He certainly had the swagger of a superstar, and that attitude seems to be very important in being successful at the major league level.

Rollins is also forthcoming on hustling:

I get it. [Manager] Charlie [Manuel] and I talked about it a lot. Sometimes I’d have an at-bat and I would ground out to the first baseman. You come out of the box with three good steps and he’s on the bag and you just kind of coast to first, the impact that can have on the team. I was like, “Everybody’s a grown man. Be your own person.” But I got his point. I definitely got it. Especially in the games I didn’t play and I would see it. I’d go, “Ah, that’s what he means.” I could definitely see it. Whether perception is reality, and that’s how people felt, I’m OK with it.

As long as at the end of the day they said I was a good person first and a good teammate, everything is good.

3 thoughts on “Rollins and the Peak

  1. rbj

    Regarding the hustle: these are major league players. Routine grounders are 99.99% going to be outs. Is there going to be maybe one or two times a season where if you hustle 9and are fast enough) you beat the throw or the first base man? Probably.

    But contrast that with the risk of pulling a hamstring or straining you quad. In which case you are out for a month or two (or even, see you in February.) Is one or two extra bases, with no guarantee of scoring (let alone how well your pitching is that night) worth the risk?

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  2. David Pinto Post author

    rbj » It’s one of those things that on average sounds fine, but when it bites you it looks really bad. The extreme is the Manny Ramirez case where the second baseman boots the ball, throws high and pulls first baseman off the bag, and Manny is still out by two steps. I think hustle until you’re actually out is a good rule.

    On the other hand, I have no problem with a batter pulling up short and going back to the dugout if he’s out by a mile.

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  3. Mike-n-Ike

    As Crash Davis argued, perceptions, interpretations and attitudes are big in baseball. I doubt any Reds rookies dogged it very often with Pete Rose around. Play hard on every play until it’s over, don’t just play hard until you think your team probably won’t win the game.

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