The 2015 series on team offense continues with the Washington Nationals. The Nationals finished ninth in the majors and third in the the National League in 2014 with 4.23 runs scored per game.
I could not find updated lineups at CBSSports.com, so I am going to use a combination of RotoChamp and USA Today. In this case, I’m going with the RotoChamp lineup that bats Bryce Harper fourth and Ryan Zimmerman fifth. That Matt Williams lineup is plugged into the Lineup Analysis Tool (LAT) using Musings Marcels as the batter projections. For the pitchers, I used the Nationals actual numbers from 2014. That information produces the following results:
Best lineup: 4.62 runs per game
Probable lineup: 4.42
Worst lineup: 4.03
Regressed lineup: 4.12
The LAT likes Jayson Werth and Harper at the top of the order, which is a lineup the Nationals used in 2012 when the team had its first great regular season run. It may even be a better idea with Werth coming off shoulder surgery than might sap his power.
Werth batting lead-off is also possible because the Nats lineup does not lack power. In the default order, the two through six hitters are all projected to slug better than .450, which is very good in the current run environment. Anthony Rendon and Harper are still in their growth phases as hitters, so there’s plenty of upside of both of them.
Williams, however, will likely go with a more traditional order, and Denard Span fits the image of a lead-off hitter. He did do a better job getting on base after Harper suggested Zimmerman should be in the outfield instead of Span, so if Denard can get back to that level, he’ll be fine at the top of the order.
I actually like order #12 the best, but it probably can’t be sold to Williams. If these starters stay healthy, the order won’t matter that much. They’ll score more than enough runs to support their great starting staff.
You can follow the data for the series in this Google spreadsheet.
Please consider donating to the Baseball Musings Pledge Drive.
Previous posts in this series: