The 2015 series on team offense continues with the Baltimore Orioles. The Orioles finished eighth in the majors and sixth in the the American League in 2014 with 4.35 runs scored per game.
I could not find updated lineups at CBSSports.com, so I am going to use a combination of RotoChamp and USA Today. In this case, I’m going with the USA Today lineup since it has Matt Wieters catching, and his current elbow problem doesn’t look like it will keep him out of the regular season. That Buck Showalter lineup is plugged into the Lineup Analysis Tool (LAT) using Musings Marcels as the batter projections. That information produces the following results:
Best lineup: 4.73 runs per game
Probable lineup: 4.62
Worst lineup: 4.44
Regressed lineup: 4.27
I’ll be somewhat surprised if this is the lineup Showalter actually uses. Steve Pearce brought his OBP way up the last two seasons, and should be starting the offensive sequence rather than finishing it. Manny Machado hasn’t shown an ability to get on base yet, just hit for a high average. Machado strenght is his doubles power, and can drive home a runner from first. He should want as many as those as possible. Of course, Machado is very young while Pearce is in his decline phase, so many the Orioles third baseman blossoms in a healthy year.
A lineup that I think would work well and play decently with the public is the third one. Pearce and Adam Jones, sets the table, Chris Davis and Machado bat fourth and fifth, and Travis Snider is in the middle. You could see that as Snider gets protected on both sides, people on base in front of him and heavy hitters behind him.
Then again, Buck Showalter knows the game better than I ever will, so if he believes this is a good lineup, I’m willing to trust him. The team is really counting on big comeback years from Machado, Davis, and Matt Wieters. If those three hit, Baltimore will do just fine.
You can follow the data for the series in this Google spreadsheet.
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