March 6, 2015

Free Money

Here are the odds of winning the World Series from MyTopSportsBooks.com.

Odds to win the 2015 World Series:
Washington: 5-1
L.A. Dodgers: 7-1
L.A. Angels: 21-2
St. Louis: 12-1
Boston: 14-1
San Francisco: 15-1
Seattle: 35-2
Chicago Cubs: 18-1
Detroit: 18-1
Chicago White Sox: 21-1
Cleveland: 22-1
San Diego: 22-1
Toronto: 45-2
Kansas City: 23-1
Baltimore: 25-1
Pittsburgh: 26-1
Oakland: 29-1
New York Yankees: 30-1
New York Mets: 32-1
Miami: 40-1
Texas: 45-1
Tampa Bay: 50-1
Cincinnati: 52-1
Milwaukee: 55-1
Atlanta: 60-1
Houston: 65-1
Arizona: 120-1
Colorado: 150-1
Minnesota: 150-1
Philadelphia: 150-1

You can compare them to odds from a different source here. What I noticed about both of these, however, is that the overall odds are generous. If the teams were evenly matched, each would have a 1 in 30 chance of winning the World Series, which translates to 29 to 1 odds. So if you bet a dollar on each team, you would break even at the end of the year. If you bet on each team in this scenario, however, you would not be guaranteed of breaking even in any given year, but over a long period of time you should. In other words, the probability of some team winning the World Series is one, so the sum of the probabilities should be one as well. In both cases, the sum is about 1.29. That long term, by betting on each team over a large number of seasons, you make 29 cents per dollar bet.

I don’t think the problem is that the long shots overstated. I think the favorites are over stated. If you set the odds of the Nationals having the best record in the majors at 5-1, I can believe that, but once they are in the playoffs, they are closer to 7-1 to win the series at that point. So their overall chance of winning the World Series is much smaller than these odds indicate. So this is a long term money making opportunity for you! Watch the odds, and when you see they are overstated, bet a dollar on every team! In the long run, you come out ahead.

1 thought on “Free Money

  1. Eric R

    Using the Fangraphs WS Odds against these betting odds, I get even bets on the Mariners, Indians and Red Sox as being profitable on average.

    22% chance of turning your $300 total bet into $1400-2200. Don’t like the nearly four in five odds of walking away with nothing?

    Take those three, plus the Rays, Jays, Dodgers, Nationals, tigers, Pirates and A’s and you project to break-even over the long haul.

    70% chance of turning your $1000 total bet into $500-5000 [and 30% chance of nothing]

    ReplyReply

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