January 19, 2015

Scherzer to the Nationals

It looks like the Nationals were the big winners in the Max Scherzer sweepstakes. Via Let’s Go Tribe, two tweets came through early this morning:

We don’t know the full details of the contract yet, but Washington once again will field a multi-ace rotation.

Seven years is a long time for a pitcher, but consider that:

  1. Max is just ending his prime years.
  2. He has not been overworked. He did not get to 200 IP until 2013, and didn’t go much over 200 IP in 2013 or 2014.
  3. His three true outcomes have shown no signs of degradation
  4. Washington does not over-use their starters. The pen is good enough that they can limit innings to their best arms.

Given his average WAR of the last three years, and assuming a 10% decline a year now that he’s moving into his 30s, and $7 million per WAR, I peg him as worth $201 and $205 million over seven years (depending on if you use FanGraphs or Baseball Reference WAR). Given that he’s a pitcher, the $180 million likely represents the greater risk of a major injury. It looks like, however, the Nationals are getting a very good deal.

With this depth, the Nats might trade one of their aces for more help on the infield.

4 thoughts on “Scherzer to the Nationals

  1. rbj

    Interesting that half of it is in deferred money, so he’ll get paid until 2028.

    Didn’t Dan Quisenberry have such an arrangement (at a much lower pay level though.)

    ReplyReply
  2. M. Scott Eiland

    Ugh. That’s going to help drive up the cost for the Dodgers to keep Greinke this fall.

    ReplyReply

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