The Hardball Times blames the Phillies poor draft results for the decline in the team, not the long-term contracts to aging players. The Phillies from 1996 through 2003 had their draft produce the most WAR in the majors. Since then, it has produced the lowest WAR. Not only are they last, they are not even close to being 29th. Of course, the 1996 to 2003 era was a time when the Phillies were very bad, finishing more than 25 games back in the division five times. It’s a little easier to be good when you are getting high picks. Now that they are doing poorly again, we’ll see if their drafts improve.

There also could be some cause and effect here. A lack of depth might have been the reason they kept their old stars around so long, when they might have been better off trading for prospects to replenish the farm system.