December 11, 2014

Night of the Dodgers

The Dodgers were busy Wednesday night, trading Matt Kemp to the Padres and acquiring Howie Kendrick from the Angels.

The official spoke only on the condition of anonymity since the trade has yet to be announced. The official announcement has been delayed because the Commissioner’s office must approve the trade, and the players must pass their physicals.

Kemp and catcher Tim Federowicz will be sent to the Padres in a package deal for catcher Yasmani Grandal, pitcher Joe Wieland and at least one prospect.

Both Grandal and Wieland posted great minor league numbers, but there is the chance Grandal’s numbers came from juicing. He has not lived up to those stats at the major league level. Wieland’s strength as a pitcher is great control.

The Padres are hoping that Kemp is healthy again, because unless the Dodgers are picking up part of his contract, he needs to be a three WAR player to justify the expense.

The Kendrick deal:

In exchange, the Angels receive left-handed starter Andrew Heaney, acquired earlier in the day by the Dodgers from the Miami Marlins for second baseman Dee Gordon and starter Dan Haren.

Dan Haren may retire rather than report to the Marlins. Mr. Heaney pitched well at all levels of the minor leagues, with great numbers in all three-true outcome categories.

So the Dodgers have a new middle infield of Jimmy Rollins and Howie Kendrick. They have a potentially great hitting catcher in Grandal and someone who should be able to help the pitching staff this season in Wieland. The also helped clear the logjam in the outfield. Given the veteran status of Rollins and Kendrick, they should not be seen as long term solutions to the positions. The mandate appears to be win this year. We’ll see how the Dodgers continue to make moves throughout the season. They have the money to adjust quickly to set backs.

I’m not sure the Padres actually helped themselves. Federowicz hit well in the minors, but not so far in the majors. His four year stint in Albuquerque may have inflated his numbers. They’ve made a big bet on Matt Kemp.

Update: The Dodgers also agreed to a four year, $48 million contract with Brandon McCarthy:

You’ve read about McCarthy enough, and we’ve written about McCarthy enough, that we probably don’t need to go into great detail again. He’s always been an interesting pitcher, but 2014 saw him reach a new level of intrigue. The Dodgers, it must always be understood, can afford to take some of these risks, on account of the money that funds them, yet this is a deal that would look pretty good on a number of payrolls. If you believe even a little bit in the power of xFIP, there’s more to McCarthy than meets the eye.

For the first time, McCarthy reached 200 innings. For the first time, McCarthy exceeded 25 starts. For the first time, McCarthy’s fastball averaged about 93 miles per hour, versus his previous 90 – 91. Odds are, these things are related. As McCarthy found a training program that works for him, he made himself stronger and more able to withstand the rigors of the long season. With added strength, McCarthy’s velocity picked up. And with added strength, McCarthy kept from wearing down, avoiding previously chronic shoulder weakness. Enough things changed for him that it’s by no means clear McCarthy will just go back to being what he had been as a decent No. 4.

Of course, it could also be a one-year fluke. The article does point out, however, that the Dodgers now have four of the top 14 pitchers in xFIP from 2014.

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