November 20, 2014

Howard’s Decline

The Philadelphia Daily News details the problems between Ryan Howard and his family, but this paragraph struck me as another example of writers not understanding the rise and fall of players:

His dirty laundry has been aired for all to see. His now is a career in early decline with a backdrop of bickering among a family once painted as close and trusting.

Ryan Howard just finished his age 34 season. By age 34, players are well into their decline phase. Players peak at about seasonal age 27. The five year peak period runs from age 25 to 29. In those five years, Howard accumlated 16.7 WAR. In the five years since, 0.9 WAR. His decline was precipitous, but not early.

Of course, the Phillies didn’t understand this either, or they would not have signed him through 2017 when they could have waited.

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