The Oakland Athletics are about to sign Billy Butler to a three-year, $30 million deal:
A steady and productive hitter for most of his career, the 28-year-old Butler is coming off a down season. He batted .271 with nine home runs and 66 RBIs in 151 games this year, 108 of those as a DH.
Before that, he played at least 158 games in each of the five previous years, including all 162 in 2013.
Butler’s best season was 2012, when he batted .313 with 29 homers and 107 RBIs. He made the All-Star team that year, when the game was played in Kansas City.
Ten million dollars a year is no longer an impressive sum in baseball. I expect a $10 million player to contribute less than two WAR a season. Butler came in with a -0.3 WAR in 2014 according to Baseball Reference, after posting values between 2.2 and 3.2 WAR the previous five seasons. The Athletics are betting that he returns to the two WAR level, at which point they come out ahead in the deal. We’ll see if they are right.
I suspect teams don’t put as much stock in position adjustments as most people. Almost an infinite supply of defensive bodies to put in the field, but hitters are rare. Obviously, they hope to get more of the 2nd half Butler than last years 1st half.