November 17, 2014

Mets Talking Like Winners

The Mets appear to be putting on a show for the fans, talking as if they are sure to make the playoffs in 2015:

Sandy Alderson made it sound like he does not intend to handle Matt Harvey‘s first year back from Tommy John surgery in the same way the Nationals handled Stephen Strasburg.

“The key for us is figuring out a way to manage his season so that he’s available to us if or when we get to the postseason,” Alderson WNBC’s Bruce Beck on Sunday night.

In 2012, the Nationals ended Strasburg’s season the first week of September, ruling out the 24-year-old star from pitching during the franchise’s first-ever post season run.

For the last week or so I keep seeing headlines about some Mets official saying the team will make the playoffs in 2015. Is this a reasonable assumption?

The Mets outscored their opponents in 2014, but went 79-83, three games below expectations. Teams tend to regress toward the mean with luck, so a base of 82 wins should be our starting point. That means the Mets really just need to improve the team by eight wins to have a shot at the playoffs. If Michael Cuddyer is healthy for the year, he should improve on the 0.5 fWAR the team posted at the position in 2014. Matt Harvey posted a six WAR in 2013. If he can post a three WAR, that’s a plus for the Mets. The Mets fifth staters were combined at around 0 WAR in 2014. So Cuddyer and Harvey get the Mets to 87 wins. David Wright is supposedly getting healthy. If he turns his 2.0 WAR 2014 season into a five WAR season in 2015, the Mets are there. In addition, there is upside from some of the youngsters.

So this isn’t talk just to get the fans interested. We could wind up with a very exciting three way race in 2015 between the Marlins, Mets, and Nationals.

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