October 25, 2014

Playoffs Today

The Royals and Giants hope V is for victory as they send Jason Vargas and Ryan Vogelsong to the mound respectively. Vargas posted the lowest single season ERA of his career in 2014. His 3.71 ERA stood half a run lower than his career average. Vargas’s strength was his low walk total, 41 BB in 187 innings. The start he made against the Giants was a mixed bag. He allowed nine hits in five innings, but only two runs as he did not walk a batter. He has been wilder than usual in his first post-season, walking four in 11 1/3 innings. That hasn’t hurt him much, as he only allowed three runs.

Vogelsong bounced back from a poor 2013 to log a season as a decent fourth starter. His FIP was slightly lower than his ERA, but not as much as I expected. What he did poorly in 2014 was start an inning. Batters reached base at a .364 clip with none on and none out, hitting eight home runs to boot. He was pitching out of the stretch a lot. His 2014 season is a mixed bag, with a good start against Wasington and a poor one against the Cardinals.

Enjoy!

By the way, I noticed during the broadcast that teams that win game three to go up 2-1 win the series about 67% of the time. Assuming that the teams are evenly matched, the binomial distribution puts the probability at 68.8%. Nice to see real life match predictions.

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