The Giants and Royals begin the World Series Tuesday night in Kansas City. The teams have never met in a post-season series before.
Here’s how the teams stack up offensively (ranks are for the team’s league):
| Category | Giants | Royals |
|---|---|---|
| Runs per Game | 4.10 (5th) | 4.02 (9th) |
| Batting Average | .255 | .263 |
| On Base Percentage | .311 | .314 |
| Slugging Percentage | .388 | .376 |
| Home Runs | 132 | 95 |
| SB-CS | 56-27 | 153-36 |
Based on the regular season, the Giants come into the series with a better offense. They outscored the Royals, and did that with a pitcher usually starting the game in the lineup. The Royals did a better job of collecting hits and getting on base, but the extra 37 home runs the Giants made up of that as San Francisco outscored the Royals by 14 runs in 2014.
Of course, in a short series, unusual things can happen. The Royals used the long ball to beat the best home run team in the game, the Orioles. The Cardinals out-homered the Giants in the NLCS, but the shots the Giants hit were of the high-leverage variety.
Note that the great base stealing by the Royals compared to the Giants came nowhere near making up for the lack of home runs.
Offensively, there may not be a home field advantage in this series, since both parks reward players who can hit the ball in the gaps for extra bases.
The following table shows the defensive side of the teams:
| Category | Giants | Royals |
|---|---|---|
| ERA | 3.50 (7th) | 3.51 (4th) |
| Strikeouts per 9 IP | 7.5 | 7.2 |
| Walks per 9 IP | 2.4 | 2.7 |
| Home Runs per 9 IP | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| BABIP Allowed | .282 | .292 |
| FIP | 3.58 | 3.69 |
The Giants owned a better ERA and FIP, but the Royals achieved their numbers in a league with a designated hitter. The Giants higher strike out rate is mostly due to their striking out opposing pitchers in 45.4% of their plate appearances. If opposing pitchers struck out at 19.1%, the rate Giants struck out opposing position players, they would drop to 7.1 K per nine. (The Royals faced opposing pitcher 19 times and recorded six strikeouts.) Both teams have the same home run rate. Although the Royals have a reputation as a great defensive team, the Giants, with the lower BABIP, did a better job of turning batted balls into outs.
In the end, we have two teams that are evenly matched, one has slightly better offense, one has slightly better pitching. One likes to play small ball, but beat the Orioles with home runs. One likes to play long ball, but beat the Cardinals by putting the ball in play with runners on. I expect this to be a close series, and I would not be at all surprised if lucky or unlucky bounce decided the series.
Based on home field advantage, I make the Royals a slight favorite with a 51% chance of winning the World Series.
I love the idea of the Giants winning 3 championships in a 5 year period. It’s been a while since any club did that. I think the last two teams to do it in the division era were the Yankees (’96,’98,’99, ’00) the Swingin’ A’s (’72,’73,’74), right? It’s rare for a team to dominate a period like that, so it’s exciting to see somebody have a shot at it.
But… alas, I cannot possibly root against KC. I’ve been dying to see them in the WS again.
Whoever wins though, their season was a success. I don’t think many realistically saw either of them reaching the World Series this season.