October 2, 2014

NLDS Preview, Cardinals Versus Dodgers

The Cardinals play the Dodgers in the division champions series of the NLDS. These teams met in the NLCS in 2013, the Cardinals coming out on top.

Here’s how the teams stack up offensively:

2014 Offensive Team numbers
Category Cardinals Dodgers
Runs per Game 3.82 (9th-T) 4.43 (2nd)
Batting Average .253 .265
On Base Percentage .320 .333
Slugging Percentage .369 .406
Home Runs 105 134
SB-CS 57-32 138-50

The Cardinals hit the fewest home runs in the National League. With the Royals bringing up the rear in the AL, Missouri doesn’t seem very hospitable to taters. 🙂

In 2013, the Cardinals got a lot of mileage out of hitting well with runners in scoring position. This season, they hit about as well with runners in scoring position as they do overall. Somehow, they lost that skill.

Normally I can point to a strength in a teams offense that might be underrated, might cause them to have an advantage over their adversary. I can find no advantage for the Cardinals hitters over the Dodgers. The Dodgers hit better, walk better, power better, and steal better. On top of all that, the Cardinals hit into a ton of double plays. They are not going to beat the Dodgers with their bats, they will need their pitchers to keep the score low.

That’s exactly what happened down the stretch. The offense performed well in August, scoring 4.4 runs per game, but fell back to 3.8 runs per game in September. The pitching staff posted a 2.66 in September, however, and the team went 17-9 to win the NL Central.

The following table shows the defensive side of the teams:

2014 Pitching numbers
Category Cardinals Dodgers
ERA 3.50 (7th) 3.40 (4th)
Strikeouts per 9 IP 7.6 8.4
Walks per 9 IP 2.9 2.6
Home Runs per 9 IP 0.8 0.9
BABIP Allowed .286 .292
FIP 3.48 3.65

The two staffs are evenly matched. The Dodgers strike out more batters, the Cardinals defense helps the staff more than the Dodgers do. We will get a great match-up in game one as Adam Wainwright faces Clayton Kershaw. That game could decide the series. The Cardinals have more rotation depth than the Dodgers, which is why there is talk about Kershaw pitching game four as well as game one. So if Wainwright can beat Kershaw in game one, the Cardinals just need to win the two games in St. Louis to take the series. Note that in 2013, the Dodgers failed to score a run in both games Kershaw started against St. Louis, Michael Wacha being the St. Louis starter in both games.

This is not the same St. Louis offense, however, and that gives the Dodgers the edge. Los Angeles should win this series, and I give them a 65% chance of advancing to the NLCS.

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