The Royals travel to Anaheim for the Wild Card series of the ALDS against the Angels, as LA of A won the title of best record in the AL.
Here’s how the teams stack up offensively:
| Category | Royals | Angels |
|---|---|---|
| Runs per Game | 4.02 (9th) | 4.77 (1st) |
| Batting Average | .263 | .259 |
| On Base Percentage | .314 | .322 |
| Slugging Percentage | .376 | .406 |
| Home Runs | 95 | 155 |
| SB-CS | 153-36 | 81-39 |
The Royals offense reminds me of the 2002 Angels offense. That team also put the ball in play, last in the AL in walks and strikeouts, just like the Royals. They negated the advantage of high strikeout staffs, outs not dependent on fielders, by hacking and making the other team play defense. We saw how Oakland was not able to handle that on Tuesday night.
The 2002 Angels did hit for some power, but the Royals make up for that a bit with their base stealing. When I try to explain slugging percentage, I tend to put it in the context of moving runners. The higher the slugging percentage of a batter, the more likely he is to move runners multiple bases. Slugging is a distance measure. What it actually measures is the average distance the batter moves himself toward home plate in an at bat. Higher slugging batters are more likely to move themselves into scoring position with a hit. When the Royals attempt a high number of steals at a high success rate, they are essentially increasing that aspect of their slugging percentage, the aspect that matters when the bases are empty.
The Royals do give outs away with sacrifice hits, but so do the Angels. Most of the bunts in the wild card game seemed to come in appropriate situations, at least.
The Angels have the best all-around player in the league in Mike Trout. He gets on base, hits for power, runs well, plays defense well, and scores and drives in run. The rest of the hitters do one thing well. Howie Kendrick and Chris Iannetta get on base. Albert Pujols and C.J. Cron hit for power. Arranged correctly around Trout, the Angels are capable of scoring well in a low run environment.
The following table shows the defensive side of the teams:
| Category | Royals | Angels |
|---|---|---|
| ERA | 3.51 (4th) | 3.58 (7th) |
| Strikeouts per 9 IP | 7.2 | 8.1 |
| Walks per 9 IP | 2.7 | 3.1 |
| Home Runs per 9 IP | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| BABIP Allowed | .292 | .285 |
| FIP | 3.69 | 3.57 |
The Angels pitching may not be as strong as they look here. Garrett Richards had a lot to do with that high strikeout rate. Matt Shoemaker picked up the slack after Richards was injured, but he missed the last two weeks of the season with a rib injury. He says he’s ready to pitch in the post season, however. Of course, they still have Jered Weaver, who this season became the veteran who knows how to win. He went 18-9 despite a 3.59 ERA, his highest for a season since 2009.
The Royals may not be putting their best foot forward with starting pitchers, either. Due to the playoff chase, Jeremy Guthrie may start game one, with the iffy Danny Duffy in game two. The Royals will need to do a better job of getting to the meat of their bullpen if the starters can’t go deep. Both pens are very good.
This could be the most National League like ALDS ever. Even with all the bunting the Angels superior offense should make the difference in the series. I give the Angels a 60% chance of advancing to the ALCS.
Update: It looks like Jason Vargas will start game one.
Jason Vargas will start Game One.
— Andy McCullough (@ByMcCullough) October 1, 2014
My point remains the same.