September 30, 2014

NL Wild Card Preview

The National League Wild Card Game takes place on Wednesday as the Giants visit the Pirates. Pittsburgh ranked fourth in the NL with 4.21 runs scored per game, the Giants fifth at 4.10 runs per game. Interestingly however, the Pirates offense seems superior. Pittsburgh posted a .259/.330/.404 slash line, the Giants came in at .255/.311/.388. I would have expected the Pirates to outscore the Giants by more. The Pirates did lose 34 more base runners on caught stealing plays and double plays than the Giants. The Pirates batting average dropped with men in scoring position to .249, while the Giants average rose to .267. So a loss of base runners and better situational hitting brought the two teams close in runs than you might expect.

Madison Bumgarner takes on Edinson Volquez in the game. Bumgarner finished fourth in the NL in strikeouts, cracking the 200 strikeout barrier for the first time in a season in his career. He had passed 190 each of the previous three seasons. He pitched extremely well on the road, 11-4 with a 2.22 ERA. He achieved that low ERA despite allowing 14 of his 21 home runs away from home.

Volquez turned around a poor 2013 performance, finishing 2014 with a 3.04 ERA. He held batters to a low BA without a high K rate, as he managed to avoid solid contact. In 2013, 22.8% of balls in play against him were line drives. That was down to 16.8% this season. It’s not clear from his pitch selection what he did differently. The Pirates are very good at turning around pitchers on their way down.

I do love we get to see Buster Posey versus Andrew McCutchen. They are two of the best players of their generation. Posey already won two World Series rings, and McCutchen looks for his first.

The Pirates are a better offensive team, but the Giants do a better job of timing their hits. Bumgarner is the better pitcher, but Volquez got better as the season progressed, and since August first has the best ERA in baseball. It should be a close game, and I’ll give the Pirates a slight edge for home field advantage.

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