Justin Morneau leads Josh Harrison .318 to .317 in the race for the NL batting championship. At the moment, Morneau has about a 60% chance of winning the batting title, based on this spreadsheet. I estimate their remaining at bats based on their at bats per team game for the season. My guess is for Morneau, that’s a good estimate, but Harrison is likely to play every game down the stretch. At this point, for Harrison to win, he needs two more hits than Morneau the rest of the way.

I’ll look into updating this every day. Basically, I figure the probability of Morneau getting at least X hits, based on his Zips(R) figure from FanGraphs. For Harrison, I figure the probability of him getting at least two more hits than Morneau. I multiply those figures together to come up with the probability of Harrison winning at that hit level for Morneau. I then add up those probabilities to get the total probability of Harrison winning.