September 17, 2014

Massive Tie Scenarios

It was a good night for the four-way tie scenario in the AL involving the AL Central contenders and the two wild card slots. The Mariners, who trail the pack, gained on all three of the teams ahead of them. That keeps the highest number of wins for a tie at 93:

Tigers 9-2
Athletics 10-2
Royals 11-1
Mariners 12-0

The Royals need to take two of three from the Tigers to make this scenario work, but given that all the teams can play well and tie, there are a high number of combinations that lead to this working.

In the NL, the three-way scenario involving the Braves keeps fading. It is down to 86 wins as Atlanta lost and the Pirates and Brewers won:

Pirates 6-6
Brewers 7-4
Braves 11-0

When the lead team needs to play .500 or below, the scenario is on life support.

The other three-way tie saw all three teams win and stays at 89 wins:

Giants 6-5
Pirates 9-3
Brewers 10-1

It’s still a long shot. However, St. Louis lost on Tuesday, and they are also 83-68, same as the Giants. The four way tie works also:

Cardinals 6-5
Giants 6-5
Pirates 9-3
Brewers 10-1

That would cause a two-day playoff for the NL Central, then a two-day playoff for the two wild card slots.

For today, the best results would be:

  • San Francisco loses to Colorado
  • Pittsburgh against Boston can go either way, with a bias toward Pittsburgh winning
  • Atlanta defeats Washington
  • Kansas City beats the Chicago White Sox
  • Detroit falls to Minnesota
  • Milwaukee defeats St. Louis. If this happens, the four-way NL scenario will become the new dominat one.
  • Seattle beat LAnaheim
  • Oakland against Texas can go either way, with a bias toward Oakland losing.

This turned out to be a pretty good year for the massive tie scenarios.

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