The Diamondbacks dropped Corbin Carroll to the seventh slot today, and he went 0 for 3 with a walk in a 5-1 Cardinals win. That leaves Carroll with a .208/.321/.260 slash line.
In 2023 Carroll produced a .325 BABIP with a highish K rate, striking out in 19.4% of his plate appearances. It’s often been my feeling that hitters with high BABIPs and high strikeout percentages could generate a lot more hits if they simply tried to make contact. In fact, Miguel Cabrera won the triple crown by cutting down on strikeouts to raise his batting average.
On the surface, Carroll made two changes that should have improved his batting game. His walks are up from 8.8% to 13.0% of PA, and his strikeouts are down to 13.9% of PA. This is beautifully reflected in his plate discipline numbers. He’s swinging less at pitchers out of the strike zone, swinging more at pitches inside the strike zone, and making more contact on all swings.
That contact is not getting results, however. His launch angle is down, and both his line drives and fly balls are down. He’s not driving the ball.
This may be the downside of trying for more contact; a batter may not swing as hard. The idea is swing hard and miss, but crush the ball when you make contact. Maybe a generational hitter like Cabrera can pull off the contact without losing power, but maybe other players find it much more difficult.
It also could very well be an injury. One way to compensate for physical ailment limiting your swing is to be selective at the plate. Carroll is not wasting outs, he’s just not doing the other things that made him such a valuable player in 2023.
Whatever is happening, the drop to seventh in the lineup indicates the Diamondbacks think it is a real problem, not a good process leading to bad outcomes.
